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NBA Playoffs Expert Free Picks for Monday, April 29
Our VI basketball betting experts have compiled their NBA picks for Monday, April 29 and they're focusing on the matchups below:
- Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (10:00 p.m. ET)
Thunder vs Pelicans Free Picks
The first game in this series had a total of 216.5. That total was a little too high, but now the adjustment has been too large in my opinion. The total was 210 in game three, and now we are 5.5 points lower.
New Orleans has shot the ball miserably in this series. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are far better players than they have looked in this series. The Thunder have a good defense, but it isn't as dominant as it has looked in this three-game series.
Oklahoma City's offense has gotten rolling in game two and game three, and I think they will continue to score their points here. They have some matchup advantages in this one.
The pace of the games has been about 95 or 96 possessions. These two teams would only need to average 1.08 points per possession to go over this total with 95 possessions as the tempo of the game.
The Pelicans are likely to regress positively toward their mean in this game.
Oklahoma City was 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the regular season. New Orleans was 11th.
Take the over.
Lakers vs Nuggets Free Picks
After three consecutive wins for the 'under', Game 4 slipped 'over' the total on Saturday as the Lakers managed to avoid getting swept.
Game 5 back in Denver features a total a few points lower than Game 4 but still a similar number to the Game 3 pairing.
The Nuggets were a strong 'under' team on the season with the 'under' 50-35-1 this season and slowing down the pace of the Lakers, particularly in the second halves, has been the key to the Nuggets delivering wins in three of the four games in this series.
The Lakers have led on the scoreboard for most of the time in this series, but Game 4 was the first game the Lakers managed to keep up its scoring pace in the third quarter, posting 30 points on Saturday in the third quarter after averaging just 20 points in the prior three third quarters.
The Lakers shot over 52 percent in Game 4 with 72 points in the paint. The 119-point performance from Los Angeles was the most in this matchup for the Lakers since Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last season, a 132-126 loss in which both teams shot nearly 55 percent.
Despite Denver's recent dominance in this matchup, the Nuggets have reached 120 just once in the past 10 meetings between these teams and the past four games between these teams at Ball Arena have averaged just 213.5 points.
Going back to last season six of the past seven Denver home playoff games have played 'under' with Denver's foes held to 103 or fewer points in six of those seven games.
Each of the past four road games in the playoffs for the Lakers have also played 'under' while the Lakers have scored 106 or fewer points in seven of 11 road playoff games the past two seasons.
NBA Playoffs Betting Resources
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